49ersNews.com

Who’s primed for a Break-out Season?
By Avo Arikian

Before the 49ers roster starts changing dramatically in the coming weeks and months, it’s good to take a look at some of the guys who are currently on the team that are the most likely to have much-improved seasons next year. Here’s the top five:

1) Brandon Lloyd, WR
I’m going to assume he’ll be back under a one-year tender. With unrestricted free agency at the end of the tunnel, expect Lloyd to do everything within his ability to bust out and have a huge year. Besides that, though, Lloyd has made consistent strides each year, despite playing in rocky situations at best. You don’t have to like his game, but you do have to agree he could very well go for 1000 yards and 8-10 touchdowns if things fall into place. And that’s why this team can’t afford to lose him – not until it can find something better, at least.

2) Shawntae Spencer, CB
Spencer quietly had a much improved season last year. He had his rough moments, no doubt, but even without a lot of pass rush and safety help, Spencer showed flashes of ability no other Niner CB has shown in years. Two of his interceptions were clutch ones in the end zone. Another helped seal a win against Tampa Bay. And he was able to take his interception against Tennessee to the house on a 61-yard return, which dropped the jaws of most fans. His 15 pass deflections were among the tops in the league. If Spencer gets a little help from his pass rush and works on dealing with the deep ball, he has scary potential.

3) Frank Gore, RB
If he stays healthy, there’s no telling what Gore can do once the team gets some semblance of an offense around him. With almost no passing game to speak of, and without huge running lanes most of the time, he managed to put up 4.8 yards per carry, something no other rookie back with over 100 carries was able to do. Truthfully, Gore would be the #1 guy on this list were it not for the questions about his durability. He’s simply a speedy 210 pound bowling ball with excellent vision. The ACLs look alright. Keep those shoulders healthy and you’ll be the man, Frank.

4) Justin Smiley / David Baas / Adam Snyder, OL
Yeah, I just lumped three players into one group. But I really feel they’re all poised to take their place as very solid starters along the line. Smiley showed more and more ability as the season went along and certainly wasn’t the liability he was in his rookie year. He has a chance to be a very good left guard should he continue to improve at that pace. David Baas took quite awhile getting adjusted, but was pancaking defenders by the end of the season, and will be an absolute bull when he fully understands his role. The offense finally looked decent again later on in the season when Adam Snyder settled in as the left tackle, and he’ll be a solid, hard-nosed player somewhere else along the line this season.

5) Arnaz Battle, WR
Battle didn’t have the year the team hoped he would, but they did see enough in him to extend his contract and secure his place with the team. Battle’s in a very similar situation to Gore, where he just has to stay healthy enough to remain on the field. He morphed into an extremely tough possession receiver this season, very much in the mold of Hines Ward. However, he has some run after the catch ability that the team needs to take advantage of. He showed plenty of it in the couple years prior, but was mostly getting hit as soon as he caught the ball this year. If he can stay healthy and Norv Turner gets him the ball in favorable situations (including gadget plays), Battle will be one of the more valuable players on the team.

What now? An Off-season Overview, Part I
By Avo Arikian

The 49ers head into the off-season with, in all likelihood, a massive amount of change on the horizon. Clearly, Mike Nolan and his staff have their work cut out for them in building a team that can compete in the NFL on a consistent basis. The good news for them is that for once, the team finally has the ammunition – about $20 million in cap space, plus the 6th or 7th pick in the draft – to add some really quality players.

With that in mind, here’s a basic breakdown of what the team needs to be looking for at each position as they gear-up for the important months ahead. Part I is an overview of the offense.

Quarterback: Alex Smith is the starter and will be for the foreseeable future. Clearly, they need to surround him with more weapons, and he has to do his best to take a step forward in terms of his own development if the team wants to improve. The team wants desperately to add a true veteran QB to play behind Smith and teach him the ropes rather than compete with him for a job (as Tim Rattay did). It’d be preferable if it were someone who’s played in Norv Turner’s offense before, and there are a couple of guys out there who would make a lot of sense. There’s no indication as to whether Ken Dorsey or Cody Pickett would stay on as the 3rd QB, but clearly, it won’t have a lot of bearing on things.

Read more…

Aaron Rodgers vs. Alex Smith : A Comprehensive Breakdown

By Avo Arikian

04.21.05—Seeing that nobody has really put together an in-depth comparison of the top two quarterbacks in the draft, I figured I would take the liberty and give my two cents on Smith and Rodgers by breaking down the various aspects of their game. Over the course of the season I was able to see Rodgers play five different times; Smith, somewhere between two to three games. I’m no Mel Kiper (my hair’s not that nice), but here are my unbiased thoughts on these potential top picks.

Overall passing ability

Rodgers holds the edge here. His release will be one of the quickest in the league as soon as he puts on an NFL jersey, and he’ll rank in the upper tier of quarterbacks in terms of ball velocity. Rodgers can make any throw within 30 yards about as well as you could ask anyone to, with excellent velocity and adequate placement. He can put good zip on the 15-20 yard out route, which is one of the hardest throws to make in the NFL. However, he needs to work on his timing on the deep ball he tends to overthrow his receivers fairly often when going for the 40-50 yard home run. Overall, in a system that is predicated on getting the ball out quickly and accurately, Rodgers has the potential to become dominant.

Smith’s arm can be classified as adequate. This comparison is made fairly often with quarterbacks who have questionable arm strength but good overall skills, but I really think it does apply in this case his arm really is similar to Chad Pennington’s. And if you’ve seen Pennington play, you’d know that it’s something that can be overcome, especially with Smith’s running ability. Smith’s throws within the 20-yard range have good velocity, but not the explosion that Rodgers’ do. He is generally accurate with the ball and leads his receivers well, but his accuracy statistics were obviously inflated some by the nature of the offense that he ran. His throws will tend to flutter past 25 yards, and he may have trouble fitting the ball into some of the tougher spots. This is probably the biggest concern with Smith overall. His release has a bit of a wind-up, but it’s not very labored, and does not contribute to an overly long release time.

Pocket presence

Rodgers’ most underrated quality is almost certainly his pocket presence. He will calmly and naturally step forward or sideways and elude the rush, and buy his receivers as much time as he can to get open. Does an excellent job waiting until the latest possible moment to release the ball, and will follow through and complete a throw even with a defender ready to deliver a blow. Very tough in the pocket and will sacrifice his body, taking hits after releasing the ball or after realizing that nobody is open and taking a sack.

Smith’s pocket presence is a bit harder to judge at this point, given that he played almost exclusively out of the shotgun at Utah. From the shotgun, he does a good job of stepping up and away from defenders in order to make a throw. The most intriguing ability that Smith has when it comes to pocket presence is his ability to pull the ball down and make something out of nothing. A good comparison at this point when talking about his pocket presence would be Ben Roethlisberger, only without the massive body strength he has enough natural instincts and ability to make something happen when things break down, assuming that his skills translate to the pocket fairly well.

Athletic ability

Rodgers is a quality athlete, displaying a good amount of quickness and overall mobility. However, rarely does he use it for anything other than rolling out and giving himself room to make the throw. Personally, I’d like to see him use his legs a little bit more to make things happen, just to keep defenses on their toes (though he’ll never be a scrambling type like Smith). He’ll never be the type of runner that Smith is, but he could gain a few yards here and there if he took his eyes away from downfield and decided to make it happen himself.

One of Smith’s greatest qualities and one that he definitely has the upper hand over Rodgers in is his athletic ability. Though his rushing stats were inflated some by the system at Utah, that doesn’t take away from the type of runner that Smith is swift, strong and instinctive. Smith displays the ability to break off big plays with his legs and I believe this will go a long way in helping him develop as a passer, as it will open up defenses. He also shows a surprising amount of lower body strength in his runs, as he will fight through tacklers for extra yardage. His quickness is easily understood when you compare his 3.96 short shuttle time to some of the most athletic prospects in the draft it’s very near the top overall. This should go a long way in helping him keep defenses honest, and in turn helping him become a better passer than he normally would be.

Intangibles

Though Rodgers comes off as a bit cocky at times, there is no question that he was the vocal leader of Cal’s offense last season and had good command of the team and the huddle. I was most impressed by his willingness to chew out his tight end (and close personal friend) Garrett Cross in one game for running the wrong route and I mean really, he was angry. You like to see that quality in a quarterback, that he demands excellence of himself and his teammates. He went on to throw a touchdown to Cross a couple plays after the ordeal, by the way. However, he’ll need to learn his limits as he enters the NFL he’ll have to earn that type of privilege through experience.

Rodgers is a hard worker and I’m sure he appreciates the situation he is now in, after being overlooked by so many DI universities that he had to attend Butte Junior College for a year before being brought in by Tedford. One encouraging sign about Rodgers’ ability to learn on the fly is that he was able to learn the offense and earn the starting role in his junior year after being on campus at Cal for only three weeks. He shows above average intelligence and awareness, and though his offense didn’t force him to do a lot of reading of the defense, he has a fighting chance to be successful at it at the NFL level.

However, I would give the slight edge to Smith when it comes to intangibles. He is extremely cerebral, very likeable, and a fiery competitor. Jon Gruden, head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, recently had this to say about Smith : “(Smith) is a genius. I don’t know if genius is a good word, but he’s pretty … smart. He sits in there with the coaches all day, every day. He loves football. This guy is close to 6-4. He can run. He can throw. Players love him. And if you watch him play against Texas A&M and Pittsburgh, you’ll say he’s good against any competition.” He graduated in three years with a degree in economics and a 3.7 GPA, and scored a 40 on the Wonderlic, which should be plenty evidence as to his mental capacity. Not necessarily that it translates to football smarts, but it does tell you about his work ethic and ability to learn.

It’s a bit of a tricky situation because his system didn’t call for him to do it all the time, but I think Smith projects to reading defenses at the NFL level extremely well. He’s the type of quarterback that will lock himself in a film room for hours on end, dissecting the tendencies of a defense to give himself an edge. He’s very bright and appears to have very good field vision, and in general, I think his teammates loved to play with him at Utah.

Basically, if I had to choose one of them to lead in the locker room and set an example of how to go about the game of football, I would probably select Smith. Rodgers is a fiery competitor, but Smith appears to have the ability to become like Peyton Manning in terms of mental prowess.

Question marks

Both of these quarterbacks have significant question marks surrounding their ability.

For Rodgers, the biggest issue by far is the “Jeff Tedford stigma”. Tedford has coached quarterbacks Trent Dilfer, Kyle Boller, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington and David Carr. Dilfer won a Super Bowl, but not with the team that he was drafted by, and certainly not as a centerpiece of the team. Smith was an utter failure at the NFL level, but much of that can be attributed to his own lack of desire to succeed and the overall black cloud hanging over Cincinnati at the time. The jury is still out on Boller, Harrington and Carr, but they have struggled to adjust to the NFL level, each of them having thrown more interceptions than touchdowns at this point.

The question then becomes how Rodgers ranks against Tedford’s past projects, and how he may set himself apart from them and their struggles at the NFL level. On the positive side, Rodgers’ pocket presence is truly excellent, his mechanics are probably the cleanest of any of the Tedford prodigies, and he does seem to have the drive and determination to improve that is necessary for the NFL. On the negative side, he seems to have been babied through the process of preparing for each game and reading the entire field fluidly like all other Tedford quarterbacks in the past. He also benefited from a tremendous running game his junior year, which seems to be overlooked more often than it should.

Ultimately, you have to decide whether Rodgers will ever be able to adjust to reading the field quickly and fluidly at the NFL level. I believe that will be his key to success in the NFL if he cannot get that done, he will struggle mightily in the pros. Either way, I think an adjustment period is a given. To say that Rodgers is “ready to start” would be stretching it. His mechanics are clean and picturesque, but he has a long way to go in terms of being able to read and dissect defenses. In the last couple of games during the 2004 campaign, he appeared lost without his starting receivers, and made some throws directly into the arms of defenders that would have led to touchdowns for the other team in the NFL.

Smith comes from a very unorthodox offense that was a blend of an option running game, a short to mid-range passing game, an ungodly amount of play-fakes, and a number of trick plays. When watching him play, there are a lot of plays where he simply takes the snap and throws the ball to a receiver or a spot without having to think about it at all. There will be an adjustment period as he will have to read the field well on every passing down in the NFL, but his stature in the pocket, football smarts and instinct should help him overcome it. Ultimately, he will have to adjust to going from the “point guard” of the Utah offense to an NFL quarterback that can carry an offense on his back himself, and that remains to be seen.

Another issue that seems to be big among Smith detractors is the fact that he rarely played under center during his two years of starting at Utah. In my opinion, however, this is a very minor issue. In the recent years, players like Ben Roethlisberger, Byron Leftwich, Daunte Culpepper and Chad Pennington have been able to make the change to taking snaps under center, albeit usually with a learning curve. There is an outside chance that this could be a reason why Smith would fail, but personally I don’t see it. I can’t name too many quarterbacks that have disappointed because simply they couldn’t adjust from the shotgun offense in college.

Smith is also lighter than you’d like for a 6’4 quarterback, and has a ways to go before he has quality bulk on his frame. Chances are he will lose some of his running ability if he were to put on 10-15 pounds, but then again, he’d be even stronger when he runs, so it may all even out nicely.

Overall analysis

It’s a cliché, but I really do agree with the perception that Smith has the bigger upside of the two, but at the same time probably possesses the bigger downside. His ability to make plays with his feet and his pristine intangibles give him the potential to become a high caliber quarterback at the next level. On the other hand, it’s possible that he may struggle to adjust to a situation where the defense isn’t nearly as clueless as to what play is going to be run. If defenses are able to key in on the passing game against him and keep him from making plays with his feet, he could have considerable trouble, much like Chad Pennington has had trouble at times.

Rodgers has a good upside himself he’s a special passer, but there’s just so much more to the position of quarterback than that. The best case scenario is that he becomes a methodical, efficient passer that can pick apart defenses with his arm. The worst case scenario is probably that he ends up struggling to read the field and never settles into an offense comfortably. He has attributes that might help set him apart from previous Tedford projects, but it’ll be a tough stigma for him to overcome, considering that no Tedford QB really has up until this point. Some of the throws he made late into the season do scare you, and one can’t help but take into account the “Tedford factor” at least to some extent. At the very least, it will give him a learning curve that in my opinion, will be only slightly less than Smith’s.

The bottom line is that either of these quarterbacks, like almost any other highly-drafted quarterbacks before them, is a considerable risk for whichever team they are taken by. But with that in mind, most teams would prefer to take a risk with the player that has the better overall upside, and that happens to be Smith on most teams’ boards. Combine that with Mike Nolan’s emphasis on intangibles, football instincts and leadership, and it would make sense that Smith is first in the hearts of the 49ers.

We’ll find out for certain this Saturday.