In late August of 2006, I woke up one day and checked the sports columns as I usually do from various sources. That fateful day I stumbled upon an article from an intellectual heavyweight named Ryan Garner. Mr. Garner fancies himself a “Sports Writer” and on that late August day he put pen to paper and decided to write his manifesto of analysis and opinion. For this PhD level analytical expose he chose to evaluate the new 49ers quarterback, Alex Smith.

Garner decided to “go out on a limb” and take the unpopular view that Smith was a bust. And by “unpopular” I mean everyone in the national media had already declared him a bust – so we’re talking a highly freethinking individual here. And judging by his thesis “Face it 49ers fans: Smith is a flop” (ignoring the word flop as some kind of adjective) – we’re dealing with somebody who clearly knows more about football than your average fan. CERTAINLY he is not a bandwagon hopping opinion maker – no, not at all.

I’ve never been one for looking in my rear view mirror – hindsight is 20/20 after all. However, in this case, I must break from tradition and address the assertions made by Mr. Garner. Why you ask? Because he wasn’t the only one that took a stand on Smith. Indeed – I took a stance on Smith, and I didn’t wait until the entire national media had already declared Smith’s future status.

I told you all from the get go that Alex Smith was among the youngest QBs ever drafted, that he was extremely green. I told you to be patient – that he had an extremely high ceiling of physical gifts and mental ability. I pointed out the similarity of Smith’s season with Eli Manning in his first year, and noted how much Eli developed the next year. I told you he had an extremely high work ethic, and was a very motivated person and that after that atrocious first year, he’d be really motivated to light the league on fire by his third year.

Turns out I was wrong. He’s doing it in his SECOND year.

But – that was just my opinion of the time. What was Mr. Garner’s? Well, lets take a look at his brilliant analysis and see how his well thought out analysis has turned out. Here’s a few highlights:

The preseason is the preseason

Every preseason is accompanied by a thick layer of rust and several players who will be selling used cars or life insurance in a month. The days of four-man rushes and pillowy-soft coverage will soon be replaced by zone blitzes and jaw-cracking blows delivered by swarming, beef-fueled linebackers.

While coaches prefer their starting quarterback doesn’t wilt under the pressure of the second-string defense’s pass rush, it doesn’t mean much when he puts up decent numbers in exhibition games. Infamous NFL bust Ryan Leaf completed 14 of 20 passes and anchored two lengthy touchdown drives in his preseason debut with the Chargers.

Ah – Mr. Garner has skillfully pointed out to us that the preseason is not the regular season. How insightful. What could I possibly say to such deadly poisoning opinion? Here’s what:

The preseason may not be the regular season, but there are a few things to note. First, Smith showed some important traits he did not show at any point the previous year – three c words that matter to quarterbacks: confidence, composure, command. It wouldn’t matter if he was going after scrubs, or the Steel Curtain, he showed he was comfortable with the players around him (something that he didn’t have at all last year – and could you blame him?), he knew what he was doing, he was no longer lost, and he was LEADING the team. That’s a big deal to a young quarterback, and is the first thing he would need to have a good year.
Aside from that – he WASN’T facing scrubs. In the preseason, first stringers face first stringers. Sure, in the first game it only lasts a few series. The second its only the first half. Third its most of the game, fourth barely at all. But that time IS against first stringers – and he went against some of the NFL’s best first stringers in the Bears, Cowboys and the Chargers, and he did well. That should have given you the first signs that he was in for a good year.

But that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Lets move on.

He wasn’t a standout in high school

Smith played alongside Reggie Bush at Helix High in La Mesa, where the talented running back led the Highlanders on and off the field.

While Bush garnered offers from several elite college football programs, Smith was recruited by Louisville (where his uncle coached until 2001), Utah, and a handful of ivy league schools. You could argue that he was overshadowed by a talented teammate, but how could so many scouts miss out on the talented quarterback?

Smith began the 2003 season with Utah as the backup to junior quarterback Brett Elliott. He only stepped into the starting role after Elliott broke his wrist against Texas A&M in the second game of the season. How many first overall draft picks lose position battles on their college teams?

Wow. Just wow. Yes folks – you just read that. The reason Smith is going to be a bust was because in HIGH SCHOOL he wasn’t a standout.

How could scouts miss out on him? Think about it my friend. For one, he didn’t have to do much because he had Reggie Bush on his team, so it’s hard to shine when you don’t get a chance to show off. Second – since when are scouts infallible gods of talent evaluation? Pro scouts can’t even agree on PRO PLAYERS and if they are good or not. Great talent gets overlooked ALL the time. Quarterbacks come out of 1-AA schools rather frequently (I’d name some, but I don’t want to embarrass you) – you don’t play at 1-AA if you’re highly recruited.

Tom Brady was so prized by scouts that he split time at Michigan and was drafted in the SIXTH round of the NFL draft. How did that turn out?

Get this through your rather thick skull – having people on board a massive hype machine does not make somebody a great quarterback prospect. Obviously that is how you operate – you jumped all over Smith as sucking after he had a terrible year and everyone declared him a bust (way to go out on a limb by the way – you’re a trail blazer), but Jesus – listen to yourself.

He has small hands

Hands are vital to a quarterback’s livelihood. Smith’s hands were so bad last season that people held their babies and other breakables close whenever he walked into the room.

Smith was accountable for 11 fumbles and several wobbly passes in 2005 because his hands are too small to grip the football.

If you ever get the chance, ask Smith to place the base of his palm against his chin and extend his hand in front of his face. You’ll notice that his fingertips

barely extend beyond his eyebrows. The problem is compounded when his hands sweat, causing the ball to slip and slide.

I know this is an article – but I’m going to ask you to be interactive here. Take your right hand, extend it just a little bit and put your palm facing you. Now avert your eyes to the ground, and slap your forehead while saying, “argh”.

That’s what I do every time I read that.

Mr. Garner, you are ESPN’s echo chamber. You have to have a pipeline set up where you hear what they say, hear it, believe it, then repeat it like you’re some kind of pioneering analyst.

Take a look at this:
Alex Smith

I’m sorry – the guy’s hands are twice as big as mine, and I’m about his height. His hand is MORE than big enough. Not to mention guys with TINY hands like Jim Plunkett have gone on to have fantastic careers.

His problem was simply fumbling. Yeah – the ball slipped out of his hand as he wound back last year twice. Big deal – I saw that happen to at least a half dozen quarterbacks THIS year.

The NCAA football and the NFL football are different. They are made of different materials (with different amounts of friction and stickiness), they are inflated differently – they are not the same ball. Smith was extremely young, with way too much swimming in his head, and he had zero time to get acclimated to the NCAA ball, let alone the NFL ball. He wasn’t used to it, and he fumbled a lot as a result.

As things have slowed down for him, and he has gotten used to the ball and the league, AMAZINGLY those “small hands” have not really had any problems this year. Hmmm – interesting how that happened.

Piece of advice Mr. Garner – stop just repeating what you hear. If you want to say Smith has small hands, he better have given you a hand job.

He’s not strong in the pocket

As a student at the University of Utah, I witnessed every single snap of Smith’s collegiate career. I run the 40-yard dash in approximately 7.2 seconds (7.15 when I have the wind at my back), my passing accuracy is poor at best, and I can’t even scramble eggs. However, even I could have put up strong numbers in Urban Meyer’s spread option offense.

Meyer’s deceptive offense became a fast break on turf, and Smith was the main beneficiary. He played out of the shotgun, with four receivers flanked wide and plenty of room to run over cupcake defenses like Arizona, Utah State and Brigham Young. With options to the inside and outside, Smith rarely lobbed a pass further than 15 yards down the field and never felt pressure in the pocket.

So, here he contends that Smith isn’t strong in the pocket because he ran the spread offense at Utah. Brilliant. Does anyone want to tell me how you can tell if he’s good in the pocket or not if you never SAW HIM IN THE POCKET?

I’m sorry Mr. Garnet – in college you have the “triple option”, you have “the spread” and you have about a dozen more quirky college BS offenses that don’t apply to the NFL, but work in college.

That doesn’t really tell you if they will, or will not be good in traditional pro offenses. Smith has shown thus far this year that indeed he IS in fact rather good in the pocket, and I’m not particularly surprised. Its new to him, but it being new does not preclude his success. Smith wasn’t drafted because he put up huge numbers at Utah in the spread – I think we all knew that the spread was a bit deceptive. The 49ers drafted him because of his mobility, intelligence and potential. The sooner you understand that, the better.

He doesn’t have the mental makeup

Comparisons to Young or Montana are not only grossly premature, but irresponsible as well. Smith faced an uphill climb last season and it will take a lot more than a strong preseason start to prove he can hold down a job as the 49ers starting quarterback.

Smith had never been tested before last season, regularly stomping weaker opposition in high school and college. He trailed after the first quarter in only one game during his three years at Utah, a 47-35 loss to New Mexico in October 2003. Playing quarterback in the NFL is the most demanding job in sports, and ultimately comes down to an individual’s confidence – the ability to strap a team to your back and deliver when the fires are raging. Unfortunately, he just doesn’t have it.

I see. So the contention here is that because he had never really had the opportunity to be “tested” that he doesn’t have the mental makeup to be a great quarterback. I wonder then, what Mr. Garner would think of Joe Montana before he was tested at Notre Dame. I wonder what he would think of Brett Favre when he was with the Falcons. Actually – I know what he would have thought. Likely we would have heard things like “Montana doesn’t have an NFL arm and won’t have the tools to really succeed on the next level” and “Favre is a loose cannon, has a lot of talent but no mental discipline”. You would have been an idiot then, and you are now.

Simply not having been tested in the past does not mean you don’t have the makeup to be an elite quarterback mentally.

Indeed, Smith faced among the worse set of circumstances of a rookie quarterback in the last 2 decades. He had among the worst offensive lines, receiving corps, TE compliments and running backs (aside from the limited time Frank Gore received) in the history of the league, and he was among the most raw and inexperienced quarterbacks to come into the league in a very long time as well. Faced with those circumstances he had about as bad of a season as a quarterback can have.

And how did he respond? He worked harder, longer and smarter than before. He spent a great deal of extra time with his new #1 WR and TE. He worked on technique and made adjustments. He intensely studied the new playbook from Norv Turner.

What is the definition of mental toughness? To me, it would be basically being castrated in the NFL for an entire year, and coming out with a chip on your shoulder and proving your critics (like Mr. Garner) to be complete idiots.

Prior to the 2005 NFL Draft, Smith submitted his name to an NFL advisory panel to see where he might be selected if he entered the NFL draft. That was after he’d been named a finalist for the Walter Camp and Davey O’Brien awards as well as the Heisman trophy. The answer came back in about three weeks – first overall. Legendary quarterbacks don’t refer to panels or committees to tell them they can play football.

This just in: The advisory panel isn’t used to see if you can play football or not. Players (any first round talent players, and MORE) use these panels to see where they’d come out in the draft. Why? Say they came back and said he’d probably go in the second round – don’t you think he’d have returned to college and developed further, had another monster year, maybe another undefeated season and possibly won the Heisman? Wouldn’t you?

If you say no, you’re completely full of shit.

Smith knew he could play, but if you know you can play and you can have a small contract, or you can have a large one, which would you choose? You know very well that its more than fair to research just what your value is so you can decide if you should come out early, or stay in school another year and increase your stock.

That has nothing to do with “can I play football”. Had you been able to actually PLAY football you’d probably understand that.

Had you been actually looking rather than slurping up the rehashed media opinion bullshit of NFL Live and Trey Wingo, you probably would have seen the seeds of success in Smith. I’m going to go ahead and pat myself on the back here and say I told you so. I watched Smith very intently and I think gave him a pretty fair and objective analysis quite some time ago – and turns out I was dead on about him.

You were too busy in an ESPN circle jerk to notice the reality beyond the conventional wisdom.

In the future it may be wise for you to actually do research before you make such definitive and bold statements about players and their future. People like me will be watching.