by Erik Klackner
08.14.05 – In the wake of the San Francisco 49ers first preseason game of the Mike Nolan/Alex Smith era, the questions that had been kept silent for two weeks of training camp have resurfaced.
Smith had taken the majority of the 1st team reps, leaving Tim Rattay to work with the 2nd string offense, all leading to the game against Oakland. The results were predictable, but nevertheless eye-opening. Smith appeared nervous, as all rookies do, and struggled to a 3 of 9 for 25 yards and one sack. Rattay played like the veteran that he is, completing 6 of 8 passes for 103 yards and 2 touchdowns. Is a full fledged QB controversy looming? Nolan doesn’t seem to think so. ‘We will more than likely maintain the same structure we’ve had in place in training camp. That’s no reflection of how anyone played; it’ss just going well with that structure,’ he said after the game.
It is abundantly clear to anyone with eyes that the 49ers desperately want Smith to start the season as the #1 QB, and you can hardly blame them. They need to sell tickets. They need to restore pride in the franchise. And most importantly, they need to see what $24 million of guaranteed money got them. All perfectly valid reasons to place Smith in the line of fire and let him learn on the job. The question I have is: does winning games in 2005 factor into the equation?
Clearly one game is not completely indicative of the entire situation, but it seems numbingly apparent that the best chance the 49ers have to win this season is with Tim Rattay as the starting QB. His strong but brief performance in the game reminded me of why I was so strongly in favor of him to begin with, however fleeting due to the circumstances. He moved the offense efficiently and calmly, as a veteran should. He seems to me to be the best QB option we have this season. Therein lies the dilemma.
This is Alex Smith’s team. It will be Alex Smith’s team for the foreseeable future. And Tim Rattay will either be relegated to being a well-paid backup, or more likely, the QB of another team. The question becomes rather simple, and yet so complex: Should the 49ers sacrifice the potential successes of 2005 for the potential successes of 2008 and beyond?
My simple yet so complex answer is to have your cake and eat it to. Let Tim Rattay be your QB in 2005. Let Alex Smith be your QB in 2006 and beyond. The argument has been made that it is better for Smith to play immediately, take his lumps, and grow as quickly as possible. I respect that position, and don’t necessarily disagree with the premise, but I think it fails to take into account past history as much as it seems to factor it in. Beginning with Peyton Manning in 1998, a total of 22 QBs have been taken in the 1st round. What follows is a VERY rough breakdown of whether they played right away (a minimum of 200 attempts in their rookie season) or sat on the bench for a period of time (less than 200 attempts in their rookie season):
QBs who played immediately
Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Cade McNown, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Ben Roethlisberger
QB’s Who Sat on the Bench
Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, Rex Grossman, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, JP Losman
What does that breakdown suggest? To me, it suggests that either option is a reasonable one. I firmly believe Smith has the tools to be a great QB in the NFL. And I firmly believe that he could play this season and take his lumps like Peyton Manning and learn from them and mature quickly. But with a quality veteran option in Tim Rattay available to play this season, I also believe Smith could benefit from sitting for a season and learning the nuances of the NFL from the sidelines before coming in next season as the featured QB, in the manner of Daunte Culpepper, Carson Palmer, and Michael Vick.
So which will the 49ers choose? I imagine they’ll pick door number one, and put Smith in the driver’s seat of the franchise from day 1, even if it means a couple minor accidents and traffic violations along the way. Which should they choose? I think they should pick door number two, and let Smith have a learner’s permit, only operating the ‘vehicle’ with a licensed driver present. As much as the sight of your #1 overall selection playing every week will help bring fans back into the fold, winning games will bring them back quicker.
